The annual barometer of poverty from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) reveals child poverty rates are already much higher in England (30%) and Wales (29%), compared to Scotland (24%) and Northern Ireland (23%). 

The research predicts that if the UK economy grows in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast over the next four years, child poverty rates in Scotland, already lower than the rest of the UK, will fall further by 2029. This results in a difference of nearly 10 percentage points between Scotland and the rest of the UK by 2029, up from 7 percentage points in 2025. 

JRF analysis shows that none of the nine English regions are likely to see a fall in child poverty between 2024 and 2029, with five regions modelled as having increases over the period and the remaining regions showing no change.

In previous years, differences in child poverty rates across the UK nations were driven by lower average housing costs in Scotland and Northern Ireland. However, JRF's latest analysis shows a similar reduction in poverty levels before housing costs are taken into account for children in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK. This strongly suggests that welfare policies, such as the Scottish Child Payment and mitigating the two-child limit from 2026, which boost the incomes of the parents of who receive them, are behind Scotland bucking the trend of rising child poverty rates elsewhere in the UK.

The data also reveals:

• Children in lone parent families (44%) and children in large families with three or more children (45%) have higher rates of poverty compared to all children (30%)
• Between 2018-19 and 2021-22 children in lone parent families (30%) and children in large families (28%) had higher rates of persistent poverty compared to all children (17%)
• In April 2024, the proportion of families with three or more children that are affected by the two-child limit exceeded 60% for the first time
• The vast majority (71%) of households affected by the benefit cap are lone parents with children.

Paul Kissack, chief executive of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said: ‘Growing levels of poverty and insecurity are acting as a tightening brake on growth and opportunity. We can't expect children to be ready for school or able to learn if they're going without the basics. Growing up in poverty can also lead to poor health, increasing pressure on the NHS. Child poverty will only be driven down through focused, deliberate and determined policy action. Even very strong economic growth won't automatically change the picture. 

‘Policy action must start with the system designed to help people meet their costs of living – social security. At the moment that system is not only failing to do its job but, worse, actively pushing some people into deeper poverty, through cruel limits and caps. The good news is that change – meaningful change to people's lives – is possible and can be achieved quickly. We know this from our recent history, and from different approaches across the UK.'