The 92% target is a key plank of the Government's Plan for Change which was set out by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in January.

However, new IFS analysis forecasts the Government can only reach 86% performance in a best-case scenario by mid-2029.

Olly Harvey-Rich, Research Economist at IFS and an author of the report, said: ‘There is widespread agreement that achieving the 18-week target within this parliament – reversing nearly a decade of worsening performance in five years – will be challenging.

‘Our new analysis quantifies just how challenging. Increasing the number of patients treated by the NHS – whether by increasing funding or improving productivity – is highly unlikely on its own to be enough to meet the target. Meeting the target will likely require historically large increases in activity and reducing demand and prioritising reducing long waits. The latter two routes have potential negative consequences for some groups of patients. It's by no means impossible, but we judge it unlikely, that the 18-week target will be met during this parliament.'

The analysis finds increasing the number of treatments on the waiting list by 3.5% per year over this Parliament would raise the proportion of patients less than 18 weeks from 59% to 74% by mid-2029.

This would be significantly faster growth than pre-pandemic and is equivalent to delivering an additional 3m appointments.

The IFS finds hitting the target by increasing NHS activity alone would require annual growth of 4.9% compared with growth of 3.8% in 2024 and an average of 2.4% between 2016 and 2019 which it judges to be ‘highly unlikely'.

In addition to increasing activity, the report notes a ‘plausible restriction' to demand could boost 18-week performance to 82% by mid-2029.

Thirdly, prioritising those with longer waiting times could provide an additional boost to reach 86% by the end of Parliament.

Presuming all of this, in combination with a 4.5% rise in treatment rates, the IFS says the Government could reach its 92% target by the next election and judges this to be ‘by no means impossible' but ‘unlikely'.

Reaction

Liberal Democrat health and social care spokesperson Helen Morgan said: ‘This report will come as a bitter blow to patients stuck suffering on seemingly endless waiting lists, forced to sit through pain as they are unable to get the care they need.'

Rory Deighton, acute director at the NHS Confederation, said ‘recent announcements on the reorganisation of NHS England, coupled with significant cuts to ICB and NHS trust budgets, may well make it harder to hit the target within the Government's timeframe'.

Interim chief executive of NHS Providers, Saffron Cordery, said: 'It's not surprising ... that modelling by the IFS confirms findings from our recent survey, which found nearly three quarters of trust leaders (71%) thought it was unlikely that the NHS could meet key health targets, such as the 18-week standard for planned hospital treatment, over the next five years. 

'But they're not giving up - far from it. Alongside implementing the elective reform plan, they're doing everything they can to boost productivity across the NHS and minimise long waits across all parts of the NHS, including mental health, ambulance and community services.'