By Christopher Exeter, a global health researcher

Last month the Global Week for Action on Non Communicable Diseases (NCD) took place. Organised by the NCD Alliance, a civil society network aimed at creating a world free from the suffering, disability and death caused by NCDs, the week sought to ensure NCD prevention receives attention and action from Governments, international agencies, donors and health systems.

The week is set against the backdrop of the rising burden of NCDs and the threat they pose to both developing and developed health systems, and aims to catalyse action in advance of the UN High Level Meeting on NCDs taking place in September 2025.

NCDs is a term that covers a range of diseases - the most common are cancer, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory diseases and mental health conditions - and are the number one cause of death and disability worldwide. 

According to the NCD Alliance, these diseases account for 74% of all deaths and more than three out of four years lived with a disability. Startlingly, the Alliance says that if no clear action is taken to reverse this trend, deaths from NCDs could rise to 52m — roughly the population of South Korea — per year by 2030. According to the WHO, globally every two seconds a person under the age of 70 dies from an NCD, with an estimated cost of US$47trn (£36trn) in lost GDP.

In the UK, heart disease, stroke, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and lung cancer - all NCDs - are the cause of most deaths. The underlying causes of these deaths are a mix of behavioural and metabolic risks. The number one cause is tobacco, followed by obesity, diet, high blood pressure, high glucose level and high alcohol use. A paper published by the University of Liverpool in 2020 highlighted a quarter of the UK population are living with an NCD and costing the country £130bn annually.

Early intervention is important to support behavioural change and manage metabolic disorders, such as high blood pressure, and to protect individuals from irreparable health problems as well preventing wider socioeconomic harm. In a recent message to the new UK Government, the UK Working Group on NCDs - a network of civil society organisations working to reduce the impact of NCDs in the UK and internationally - emphasises the financial impact NCDs have on individuals and households, by pushing them into poverty.

This is a point picked up by a recent Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS) report on post-Covid health related benefit claims. The IFS research shows over the last four years working age health related benefits rose from £36bn in 2019-20 to £48bn in 2023-24, and are forecast to increase to £63bn in 2028-29. The IFS highlights how this rise in benefit claims is largely a UK phenomenon. Comparator countries with similar benefits, for example Australia, Austria, Canada, Ireland, The Netherlands and the US among others, saw a fall in claims.

The question is why? Is the UK population peculiarly afflicted by disease compared with populations in similar high income countries? A clue may lie in the Commonwealth Fund's 2024 Mirror, Mirror report. While the UK ranked third out of 10 countries for overall health care system performance, in two areas - care process and health outcomes - it ranked eighth, and for health equity it ranked fifth. These areas are critical to improving the health of the population, and without improving the inputs - prevention and care processes - there will be no improvement in outputs - health outcomes and equity.

The new Government has pledged to put prevention at the centre of 10-year reform plans for the NHS. Although arguably health is not confined to the NHS. The Government has said it will co-develop the plan with patients, the public and healthcare staff. However, if the outcome does not recommend making fundamental changes to the health model - such as reforming primary care, reducing politicians' addiction to building more hospitals and shifting public understanding on the importance of prevention - then there is unlikely to be any impact on the NCD burden in the UK.