A study by healthcare consultancy CF (Carnall Farrar) and the NHS Confederation found 40,000 extra appointments per week will only deliver an estimated 15% of the extra activity needed to hit the 18-week target.

NHS Confederation chief executive Matthew Taylor said: ‘NHS leaders share the Government's ambitions to restore performance on the 18-week target by the end of this parliament. 

‘But to achieve this the Government will need to use the Autumn Budget to deal with the short-term deficit that is leading to NHS organisations either cutting or freezing posts. This will inevitably impede efforts increase productivity and reduce the waiting list. As our analysis with CF shows, 40,000 extra appointments a week won't be nearly enough to hit the target.'

The report finds that by 2028/29 the NHS will need to provide 33.6m outpatient appointments, 4m day-case procedures and 1.1m overnight stays to clear the waiting list back to levels that would sustain performance against the 18-week target in 2028/29. This is 50% more activity than is now being delivered.

The report makes a number of recommendations, including:

·         embracing tools available as part of the Federated Data Platform more widely to improve efficiency and accuracy and supporting staff to adopt digitally-enabled management practices for the elective pathway

·         creating centres of expertise for complex elective admitted care

·         the adoption of the latest technology and innovation to transform outpatient care, including process automation, the application of artificial intelligence and robotics

·         creating elective hubs for people whose treatment involves an admission to hospitalcreating centres of expertise for complex elective admitted care.

A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said: ‘This Government inherited a broken NHS, with millions of patients waiting far too long for treatments and appointments and waiting lists growing each month.

‘Our priority is getting people seen on time again. We will tackle the backlog through a range of measures, including delivering an extra 40,000 appointments per week and investing in new AI-enabled scanners.

‘Fixing the NHS will be difficult and will take time, but this Government will deliver the investment and reform needed to turn the service around.'