The Royal College of Nursing (RCN) is warning that without action to make the career more attractive, by easing the financial burden on students and raising pay, 32,225 people enrolled on nursing courses in England could quit their degrees by 2029.

Analysing data from the Higher Education Statistics Agency, the RCN was able to calculate the average student dropout rate in England as 21% since the nursing bursary was scrapped in 2016.  Applied to the projected number of acceptances onto nursing courses in England each year until 2029, it shows that tens of thousands could leave before graduating.

Nursing students in England pay tuition fees of £9,250 each year, which is set to rise to £9,535 in 2025. There is no universal maintenance grant to support living costs and a recent Nuffield Trust report shows some are unable to afford food and bills. It comes as new data from the universities' admissions service UCAS shows just 130 extra students started nursing courses in England this year compared with 2023.

To rescue nursing and deliver its NHS reforms, the RCN says the government must make nursing a more attractive degree and career by introducing a loan forgiveness model for students who commit to working in the NHS and wider public services, alongside universal maintenance grants. Addressing the debt burden and easing cost of living pressures is the best way to reduce the dropout rate, alongside increasing nursing pay to make the career more attractive.

Prof Nicola Ranger, RCN general secretary and chief executive, said: ‘The students of today are the nurses of the future. But for tens of thousands, the unbearable weight of graduate debt, lack of support with living costs and prospect of low pay is set to push them out of the profession before they qualify. This is a tragedy for them and patients.

‘To deliver the government's NHS reforms we need to supercharge recruitment into nursing, but we can't do that with a broken education model or more real terms pay cuts. Ministers should change course and agree a social contract with nursing students that sees pay rise and loans forgiven if they commit to working in public services.

‘Transforming care cannot happen without investment to transform nursing. That means changing the way we recruit into the profession and making it a more attractive career by raising pay.'

In response, a government spokesperson, said: ‘These figures are speculative. As we deliver our plan for change, we are taking action to fix our broken NHS and ensure nursing remains an attractive career choice.

‘We have already delivered pay rises for over 1.4 million agenda for change staff, including nurses, and together with the NHS we will unveil a refreshed workforce plan in the summer to provide the health service with much-needed stability and certainty.

‘We are also creating a sustainable higher education funding system that supports students, including by increasing the maximum loan for living costs in line with inflation next year.'