The IFS said its findings were consistent with rising disability benefit claims for mental health.
Since the pandemic, the number of 16- to 64-year-olds in England and Wales on disability benefits rose by 0.9m to 2.9m, with 7.5% of 16- to 64-year-olds now claiming.
Around 0.5m – over half – of this rise has come from claimants whose main condition is a mental health problem.
Eduin Latimer, a research economist at IFS and an author of the report, said: ‘The rise in the number of people on disability benefits is a key motivation for the Government's upcoming Green Paper. A range of evidence suggests that mental health across the population has worsened, and – consistent with this – more than half of the rise in disability benefit caseload comes from claims for mental health and behavioural conditions. As well as obviously bad news on their own terms, mental health problems may also be contributing to the rising benefits bill.'
The report finds the percentage of working age people with a long-term health or behavioural condition has increased from 8-10% in the mid-2010s to 13-15%.
Working age ‘deaths of despair' as defined by the report have increased since the pandemic with deaths attributed to alcohol, drugs and suicide up 24% – around 3,700 deaths – in 2023 compared with pre-pandemic levels for 15- to 64-year-olds in England and Wales.
The report highlighted a strong link between these deaths and mental health issues, indicating an increasing incidence in severe mental health problems.
Deaths of despair were the main driver in the working age mortality in 2023, up 5.5% on pre-pandemic levels, although early data for 2024 indicated a 1.5% rise on pre-pandemic levels.
There were 2m people in contact with NHS mental health services in December 2024, including people waiting for care. Areas with comparable data showed a 36% increase between 2019 and 2024.
The number of people in England with prescriptions for antidepressants rose by 12% since 2019.
Iain Porter, senior policy adviser at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said: ‘This is clear evidence of a deterioration in mental health in the population, which goes some way to explaining rising health-related benefit claims. Greater openness about mental health has helped many people to live with conditions which were once hidden, but the rise in deaths of despair also shows that reducing stigma does not eliminate the most serious consequences of rising mental ill health. This trend is real and growing, and we need our Government to look carefully at the health of the nation, rather than relying on benefit cuts to fix the problem.
‘We await the Government's forthcoming Green Paper to see whether it will truly address the underlying causes of increasing poor health, whether it will help more people stay in work when they are struggling with their health and whether it will make the move into work safer for people who feel at risk of losing support.'
Jo Bibby, director of health at The Health Foundation, said: ‘We are right to be concerned over the worsening mental health of the working-age population, which is increasingly reflected in more people seeking disability benefits. Improving health requires strengthening the building blocks of health, like adequate income and quality work. Our Commission for Healthier Working Lives emphasises the need for a radical policy shift to prevent health issues and ensure timely support when they arise. The upcoming Green Paper presents an opportunity for the government, employers and businesses to adopt a new approach that supports everyone.'
Response
Interim chief executive of NHS Providers, Saffron Cordery said: ‘With the 10-Year Health Plan and Comprehensive Spending Review coming up, this is a critical opportunity to prioritise mental health and recognise the clear economic and wider benefits that can be derived from investing in this vital sector.'
NHS Confederation analysis has shown reintegrating between half and three-quarters of people who have dropped out of the workforce for reasons of ill health since 2020 could deliver an estimated £109-177bn boost to the UK's GDP (2-3% in 2029) and unlock £35-57bn in fiscal revenue over the next five years.
Rebecca Gray, mental health director at the NHS Confederation, called for ‘cross-Government co-operation, collaboration and investment on health policy, recognising that most policy that impacts people's health is made outside the NHS'.
She cited how poverty, deprivation, insecure housing and unemployment all impact on mental health in particular.
A Government spokesperson said: ‘We have been clear that the current welfare system is broken and needs reform, so that it's fair on the taxpayer, helps sick and disabled people who can work to find employment, and ensures people receive the support they need.
‘Without reform more people will be locked out of jobs, despite many wanting to work. That is not just bad for the economy, it's bad for people too, and that's why we will bring forward our proposals for reform shortly as part of our Plan for Change.
‘Alongside this, we are taking forward plans to improve mental health services and will recruit an additional 8,500 mental health workers to reduce delays and provide faster treatment, as part of our commitment to ensure we give mental health the same attention and focus as physical health.'
